China and World Wheat Markets: Assessing Supply, Demand and Trade in China

The future role of China in world wheat markets is a compelling and important issue for pro­ ducers in California and the rest of the US. Some analysts have estimated that China will continue to demand large quantities of imported wheat. Others have forecast that China will gradu­ ally move to a position where domestic supply will meet the nation’s demand for wheat. Such strong views on this topic may be somewhat surprising since previous studies of China's wheat supply, demand, and trade have ig­ nored factors that determine production, consumption, and im­ porting behavior. Here we examine the effects of China's income growth, urbanization, and market develop­ ment on its wheat demand. We also study the effects of technology, agri­ cultural investment, environmental trends, and institutional innovations on China's wheat supply. Together, these factors will determine if China becomes self-sufficient or continues to be the world's largest importer.